Airtel Stadium · Analysis updated 13:40 UTC
Singida Black Stars vs Tusker Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.91 expected goals for Singida Black Stars and 1.16 for Tusker, a combined total of 3.07. That distribution gives Singida Black Stars the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Singida Black Stars win
54.7% probability
Expected goals
1.91 – 1.16
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Singida Black Stars home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Singida Black Stars to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 22% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.91 goals for Singida Black Stars and 1.16 for Tusker, a combined 3.07 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–08.4%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
Singida Black Stars
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ghazal · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mashujaa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ghazal · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Namungo · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Polisi Tanzania · 4-2 (W)
Tusker
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli Wad Medani · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahli Wad Medani · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-01T17:00:00.000Z · H vs KVZ · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayon Sports · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Hilal Omdurman · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Singida Black Stars win, at 54.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.