OmaSp Stadion · Analysis updated 18:05 UTC
SJK Akatemia vs Kooteepee Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.81 expected goals for SJK Akatemia and 2.19 for Kooteepee, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Kooteepee the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kooteepee win
68.9% probability
Expected goals
0.81 – 2.19
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SJK Akatemia home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kooteepee away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
31%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.9%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.7%
- 1–18.8%
- 0–38.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.25 (model 50.7% vs market 41.1%, edge +9.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.25 | 41.1% | 50.7% | 1.97 | +9.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 3.10 | 30.5% | 31.1% | 3.22 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Away | 1.30 | 68.7% | 68.9% | 1.45 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.08 | 87.4% | 87.5% | 1.14 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.80 | 18.6% | 18.6% | 5.38 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 7.00 | 12.8% | 12.5% | 8.00 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.15 | 82.1% | 81.4% | 1.23 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 58.9% | 49.3% | 2.03 | -9.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
SJK Akatemia
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs PK-35 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kooteepee · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs EIF · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs KäPa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs MP · 1-1 (D)
Kooteepee
- 2026-09-25T15:30:00.000Z · H vs MP · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs PK-35 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs JäPS · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs JIPPO · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Haka · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-31T15:30:00.000Z · SJK Akatemia 1-2 Kooteepee (Ykkösliiga)
- 2026-05-29T15:30:00.000Z · SJK Akatemia 0-1 Kooteepee (Ykkösliiga)
- 2026-03-07T11:00:00.000Z · SJK Akatemia 1-2 Kooteepee (Ykköscup)
- 2024-08-19T15:30:00.000Z · SJK Akatemia 3-3 Kooteepee (Ykkösliiga)
- 2024-06-20T16:00:00.000Z · SJK Akatemia 0-3 Kooteepee (Ykkösliiga)
- 2024-04-24T15:30:00.000Z · SJK Akatemia 1-5 Kooteepee (Ykkösliiga)
- 2022-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · SJK Akatemia 0-1 Kooteepee (Ykkönen)
- 2022-06-11T14:00:00.000Z · SJK Akatemia 1-1 Kooteepee (Ykkönen)
- 2020-09-07T15:30:00.000Z · SJK Akatemia 0-4 Kooteepee (Ykkönen)
- 2020-07-04T14:00:00.000Z · SJK Akatemia 0-3 Kooteepee (Ykkönen)
Ykkösliiga table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kooteepee win, at 68.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.