· Analysis updated 05:50 UTC
Skopje vs Vardar Skopje Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Skopje and 1.52 for Vardar Skopje, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives Vardar Skopje the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws roughly 53% of the time.
Model pick
Vardar Skopje to Win
47.1% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.52
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–28.5%
- 1–08.0%
Why the model likes this
Skopje home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vardar Skopje to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 27% / 26% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Skopje and 1.52 for Vardar Skopje, a combined 2.62 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Skopje
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sileks · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Struga · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkendija · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aresimi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-31T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Akademija Pandev · 1-0 (W)
Vardar Skopje
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sileks | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 |
| 2 | Tikveš | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 |
| 3 | Shkendija | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Struga | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 5 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 6 | Bregalnica Štip | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Vardar Skopje | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Aresimi | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 3 |
| 9 | Skopje | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 10 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.