· Analysis updated 22:28 UTC
Sopoti Librazhd vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Sopoti Librazhd and 1.25 for Iliria Fushë-Krujë, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Iliria Fushë-Krujë the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.5% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sopoti Librazhd home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Iliria Fushë-Krujë to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 30% / 29% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Sopoti Librazhd and 1.25 for Iliria Fushë-Krujë, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.2%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–28.2%
Recent form
Sopoti Librazhd
- 2026-10-06T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Besëlidhja Lezhë · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kastrioti Krujë · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Burreli · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Besa Kavajë · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bylis · 1-1 (D)
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Kastrioti Krujë · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Burreli · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Besa Kavajë · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Veleçiku Koplik · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bylis · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1st Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Besa Kavajë | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Pogradeci | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Flamurtari | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | FK Kukesi | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Bylis | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Besëlidhja Lezhë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Kastrioti Krujë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Korabi Peshkopi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Sopoti Librazhd | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Burreli | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Oriku | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.