· Analysis updated 13:26 UTC
Sparta Praha W vs Torreense W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Sparta Praha W and 1.83 for Torreense W, a combined total of 3.73. That distribution gives Sparta Praha W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.2% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sparta Praha W home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Torreense W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sparta Praha W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 22% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Sparta Praha W and 1.83 for Torreense W, a combined 3.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.3%
- 2–17.9%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.3%
- 3–15.0%
Recent form
Sparta Praha W
- 2026-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Farul Constanţa W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Horní Heršpice W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Farul Constanţa W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava W · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Plzeň W · 2-3 (L)
Torreense W
- 2026-10-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Braga W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Metalist 1925 W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Marítimo W · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Metalist 1925 W · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.