Estadio Alberto Gallardo · Referee Roberto Perez Gutierrez · Analysis updated 07:27 UTC
Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Sporting Cristal and 1.08 for Comerciantes Unidos, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Sporting Cristal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sporting Cristal win
60.9% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting Cristal home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Comerciantes Unidos away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.4%
- 2–09.2%
- 1–08.8%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Sporting Cristal
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs UTC Cajamarca · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T20:00:00.000Z · H vs ADT · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:15:00.000Z · A vs ADT · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Grau · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs UCV Moquegua · 2-1 (W)
Comerciantes Unidos
- 2026-10-10T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Juan Pablo II College · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Atletico · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Huancayo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T20:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Cajamarca · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T20:30:00.000Z · Sporting Cristal 0-1 Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División)
- 2025-11-01T20:15:00.000Z · Sporting Cristal 4-1 Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División)
- 2025-06-29T16:00:00.000Z · Sporting Cristal 2-0 Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División)
- 2024-11-03T16:00:00.000Z · Sporting Cristal 3-0 Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División)
- 2024-05-25T20:00:00.000Z · Sporting Cristal 1-0 Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División)
- 2018-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · Sporting Cristal 0-2 Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División)
- 2018-06-09T20:30:00.000Z · Sporting Cristal 1-1 Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División)
- 2018-04-11T20:30:00.000Z · Sporting Cristal 3-1 Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División)
- 2018-02-25T21:00:00.000Z · Sporting Cristal 3-0 Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División)
- 2017-09-10T20:30:00.000Z · Sporting Cristal 2-2 Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting Cristal win, at 60.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.