Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer · Analysis updated 14:46 UTC
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 0.90 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.4% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Holstein Kiel away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 30% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 0.90 for Holstein Kiel, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.7%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–012.2%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–08.8%
Recent form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Hertha BSC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-01T15:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Magdeburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Bochum · 1-1 (D)
Holstein Kiel
- 2026-10-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Viborg · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs VfL Osnabrück · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 25 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Arminia Bielefeld | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Energie Cottbus | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Dynamo Dresden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | VfL Osnabrück | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | VfL Bochum | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Hannover 96 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Karlsruher SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.