SSVg Velbert vs SC St. Tönis Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for SSVg Velbert and 2.15 for SC St. Tönis, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives SC St. Tönis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

SC St. Tönis win

47.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 2.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SSVg Velbert home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SC St. Tönis away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SC St. Tönis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 32% / 21% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for SSVg Velbert and 2.15 for SC St. Tönis, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

SSVg Velbert win32%

Draw21%

SC St. Tönis win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals75%

Over 3.5 goals55%

Both teams to score73%

Correct score

1–28.2%
1–17.6%
2–27.2%
2–16.7%
1–35.9%

Recent form

SSVg Velbert

2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs BW Dingden · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Meerbusch · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Büderich · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sonsbeck · 2-4 (L)
2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Schonnebeck · 3-5 (L)

SC St. Tönis

2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Holzheimer SG · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SSVg Velbert · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs BW Dingden · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Büderich · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Schonnebeck · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Niederrhein table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Schonnebeck	10	8	2	0	24	26
2	SSVg Velbert	10	8	0	2	11	24
3	Fortuna Düsseldorf II	10	6	2	2	12	20
4	SC St. Tönis	10	5	2	3	5	17
5	Sonsbeck	10	4	4	2	4	16
6	SF Baumberg	10	4	4	2	2	16
7	BW Dingden	10	5	1	4	0	16
8	Monheim	10	4	3	3	6	15
9	Solingen-Wald	10	5	0	5	-4	15
10	KFC Uerdingen 05	10	4	2	4	9	14
11	Germania Ratingen	10	3	5	2	1	14
12	Viktoria Jüchen-Garz.	10	4	2	4	-1	14
13	Wuppertaler SV	10	4	1	5	5	13
14	Scherpenberg	10	2	2	6	-13	8
15	Büderich	10	1	4	5	-14	7
16	SW Essen	10	1	3	6	-11	6
17	Meerbusch	10	1	2	7	-14	5
18	Holzheimer SG	10	1	1	8	-22	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is SC St. Tönis win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.