Tarancón vs Socuéllamos Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.58 expected goals for Tarancón and 0.65 for Socuéllamos, a combined total of 1.23. That distribution gives Socuéllamos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 32%, with the draw at 41%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 13% for over 2.5 goals and 21% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 29%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 32% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.58 – 0.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tarancón home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Socuéllamos away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Tarancón win27%

Draw41%

Socuéllamos win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

59%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals35%

Over 2.5 goals13%

Over 3.5 goals4%

Both teams to score21%

Correct score

0–029.4%
0–119.1%
1–016.9%
1–111.0%
0–26.2%

Recent form

Tarancón

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara II · 6-2 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CD Villa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Torrijos · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Illescas · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchego · 0-1 (L)

Socuéllamos

2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs CD Villa · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Torrijos · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Illescas · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Villarrobledo · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2025-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · Tarancón 0-0 Socuéllamos (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2024-12-15T11:00:00.000Z · Tarancón 1-0 Socuéllamos (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2024-02-17T11:00:00.000Z · Tarancón 0-0 Socuéllamos (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2023-10-01T10:00:00.000Z · Tarancón 0-1 Socuéllamos (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2019-11-17T11:00:00.000Z · Tarancón 1-3 Socuéllamos (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchego	6	5	0	1	4	15
2	Torrijos	6	4	2	0	8	14
3	Illescas	6	4	2	0	5	14
4	Toledo	6	4	1	1	8	13
5	Villarrobledo	6	3	3	0	7	12
6	CD Villa	6	4	0	2	3	12
7	Almansa	6	3	1	2	5	10
8	Tarancón	6	3	1	2	4	10
9	Villacañas	6	2	2	2	2	8
10	Marchamalo	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	San Clemente	6	2	2	2	-2	8
12	Noblejas	6	2	1	3	-5	7
13	Quintanar del Rey	6	1	2	3	-5	5
14	Socuéllamos	6	0	4	2	-3	4
15	La Solana	6	1	0	5	-6	3
16	Villarrubia	6	0	3	3	-7	3
17	Guadalajara II	6	0	2	4	-7	2
18	Huracán Balazote	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 21% and over 2.5 goals at 13%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.