Estadio Jose Dellagiovanna · Referee Brian Ferreyra · Analysis updated 13:59 UTC
Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Tigre and 0.69 for Atletico Tucuman, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Tigre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tigre win
54.3% probability
Expected goals
1.41 – 0.69
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tigre home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico Tucuman away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tigre to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 27% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.41 goals for Tigre and 0.69 for Atletico Tucuman, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.3%
- 0–012.2%
- 2–012.2%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–18.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.62 (model 62.3% vs market 57.6%, edge +4.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.62 | 57.6% | 62.3% | 1.61 | +4.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 80.9% | 81.7% | 1.22 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.2% | 18.3% | 5.46 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.67 | 54.3% | 54.3% | 1.84 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.5% | 27.4% | 3.65 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.9% | 72.6% | 1.38 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.05 | 46.2% | 45.7% | 2.19 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.20 | 42.4% | 37.7% | 2.65 | -4.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Tigre
- 2026-10-17T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Independ. Rivadavia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Banfield · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos JRS · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Velez Sarsfield · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central · 0-1 (L)
Atletico Tucuman
- 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Barracas Central · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Aldosivi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Independ. Rivadavia · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tigre win, at 54.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.