Trud stadium · Analysis updated 13:46 UTC
Torpedo Miass vs Irtysh Omsk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Torpedo Miass and 1.08 for Irtysh Omsk, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Torpedo Miass the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Torpedo Miass win
59.8% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Torpedo Miass home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Irtysh Omsk away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–09.2%
- 1–09.0%
- 3–16.8%
Recent form
Torpedo Miass
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tyumen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Irtysh Omsk · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Zenit 2 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Stavropol · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Volna Nizhegorodskaya · 0-1 (L)
Irtysh Omsk
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Moskva II · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Zenit 2 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Miass · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Stavropol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tyumen · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T11:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Miass 0-2 Irtysh Omsk (Second League A - Division A Silver)
- 2026-04-26T11:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Miass 1-1 Irtysh Omsk (Second League A - Division A Gold)
- 2026-03-08T09:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Miass 0-0 Irtysh Omsk (Second League A - Division A Gold)
- 2025-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Miass 2-2 Irtysh Omsk (Second League A - Division A Silver)
- 2025-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Miass 1-0 Irtysh Omsk (Second League A - Division A Silver)
- 2024-10-19T07:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Miass 2-1 Irtysh Omsk (Second League A - Fall Season Silver)
- 2024-08-25T11:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Miass 0-1 Irtysh Omsk (Second League A - Fall Season Silver)
- 2024-05-11T12:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Miass 0-2 Irtysh Omsk (Second League A - Spring Season Silver)
- 2024-03-30T11:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Miass 1-1 Irtysh Omsk (Second League A - Spring Season Silver)
- 2023-05-21T11:00:00.000Z · Torpedo Miass 0-0 Irtysh Omsk (Second League - Group 4)
Second League A - Division A Silver table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 32 |
| 2 | Amkar | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Tyumen | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Torpedo Miass | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Dinamo Stavropol | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 11 |
| 6 | Dinamo Moskva II | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 8 |
| 7 | Irtysh Omsk | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -17 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Torpedo Miass win, at 59.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.