Estadio Manuel Marques · Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
Torreense W vs Rio Ave W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.41 expected goals for Torreense W and 0.50 for Rio Ave W, a combined total of 3.92. That distribution gives Torreense W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 90%, with the draw at 7%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 90% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Torreense W win
90.1% probability
Expected goals
3.41 – 0.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rio Ave W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Torreense W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 90%, against 90% / 7% / 3% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.41 goals for Torreense W and 0.50 for Rio Ave W, a combined 3.92 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 38%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
97%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
10%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–013.2%
- 2–011.6%
- 4–011.3%
- 5–07.7%
- 1–06.8%
Recent form
Torreense W
Rio Ave W
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Valadares Gaia W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs SL Benfica W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Torreense W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-31T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gil Vicente W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gil Vicente W · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1a Divisão - Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Torreense W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 9 |
| 2 | Sporting CP W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 3 | SL Benfica W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Sporting Braga W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 5 | Porto W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 6 | Racing Power W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 7 | Valadares Gaia W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 8 | Vitoria Guimaraes W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 9 | Rio Ave W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 10 | Marítimo W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -18 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Torreense W win, at 90.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 90% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.