Reina Sofia · Referee R. Ruiperez · Analysis updated 08:15 UTC
Unionistas de Salamanca vs Cultural Leonesa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Unionistas de Salamanca and 1.32 for Cultural Leonesa, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Cultural Leonesa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.9% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.32
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Unionistas de Salamanca home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cultural Leonesa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 0–112.6%
- 1–09.8%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–28.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 52.9% vs market 49.3%, edge +3.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 49.3% | 52.9% | 1.89 | +3.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.67 | 55.9% | 56.7% | 1.76 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 2.05 | 43.0% | 43.3% | 2.31 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 72.3% | 72.4% | 1.38 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 27.6% | 27.6% | 3.62 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 3.00 | 29.4% | 29.1% | 3.44 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.30 | 71.8% | 70.9% | 1.41 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 50.7% | 47.1% | 2.12 | -3.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Unionistas de Salamanca
- 2026-10-24T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Ferrol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Cacereño · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Cultural Leonesa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirandes · 0-1 (L)
Cultural Leonesa
- 2026-10-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs UD Logroñés · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arenas Getxo · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Unionistas de Salamanca · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs CD Coria · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Extremadura 1924 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-01-26T16:30:00.000Z · Unionistas de Salamanca 3-4 Cultural Leonesa (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2024-09-28T19:30:00.000Z · Unionistas de Salamanca 1-2 Cultural Leonesa (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2024-02-04T15:00:00.000Z · Unionistas de Salamanca 1-1 Cultural Leonesa (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2023-09-02T18:30:00.000Z · Unionistas de Salamanca 1-0 Cultural Leonesa (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2023-05-20T17:30:00.000Z · Unionistas de Salamanca 2-0 Cultural Leonesa (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2022-11-26T17:00:00.000Z · Unionistas de Salamanca 0-2 Cultural Leonesa (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2022-02-13T16:00:00.000Z · Unionistas de Salamanca 1-0 Cultural Leonesa (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2021-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · Unionistas de Salamanca 2-2 Cultural Leonesa (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2021-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · Unionistas de Salamanca 2-1 Cultural Leonesa (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2021-04-04T10:00:00.000Z · Unionistas de Salamanca 0-1 Cultural Leonesa (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 2 | UD Logroñés | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 3 | Racing Ferrol | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Unión | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Mérida AD | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Athletic Club II | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Zamora | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Cultural Leonesa | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Cacereño | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Ponferradina | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Real Avilés | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 12 | Pontevedra | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Mirandes | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 | Extremadura 1924 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 15 | Barakaldo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 17 | CD Coria | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 18 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 5 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -17 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.