Reina Sofia · Referee C. Orozco · Analysis updated 10:27 UTC
Unionistas de Salamanca vs UD Ourense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.64 expected goals for Unionistas de Salamanca and 0.82 for UD Ourense, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Unionistas de Salamanca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Unionistas de Salamanca win
56.9% probability
Expected goals
1.64 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Unionistas de Salamanca home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
UD Ourense away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Unionistas de Salamanca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 25% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.64 goals for Unionistas de Salamanca and 0.82 for UD Ourense, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.1%
- 2–011.5%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Unionistas de Salamanca
- 2026-10-24T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Ferrol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Cacereño · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Cultural Leonesa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirandes · 0-1 (L)
UD Ourense
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Arenas Getxo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Real Avilés · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Barakaldo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Unión · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cacereño · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 2 | UD Logroñés | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 3 | Racing Ferrol | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Unión | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Mérida AD | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Athletic Club II | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Zamora | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Cultural Leonesa | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Cacereño | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Ponferradina | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Real Avilés | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 12 | Pontevedra | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Mirandes | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 | Extremadura 1924 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 15 | Barakaldo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 17 | CD Coria | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 18 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 5 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -17 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Unionistas de Salamanca win, at 56.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.