Cluj Arena · Referee Radu Marian Petrescu, Romania · Analysis updated 14:12 UTC
Universitatea Cluj vs Petrolul Ploiesti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Universitatea Cluj and 0.88 for Petrolul Ploiesti, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Universitatea Cluj the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Universitatea Cluj win
58.1% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Universitatea Cluj home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Petrolul Ploiesti away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.7%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–011.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.2%
Recent form
Universitatea Cluj
- 2026-10-08T17:30:00.000Z · A vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Voluntari · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Oţelul · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Craiova · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrolul Ploiesti · 1-0 (W)
Petrolul Ploiesti
- 2026-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Csikszereda · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FCSB · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Corvinul Hunedoara · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Cluj · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Cluj · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 1-0 Petrolul Ploiesti (Cupa României)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 2-3 Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)
- 2025-12-14T13:30:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 1-0 Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)
- 2025-08-09T18:30:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 1-1 Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)
- 2024-12-14T18:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 4-1 Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)
- 2024-08-12T16:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 0-0 Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)
- 2024-04-13T18:30:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 1-2 Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)
- 2023-11-11T12:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 0-0 Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)
- 2023-07-16T15:30:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 1-1 Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)
- 2023-04-16T15:15:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 2-0 Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 29 |
| 2 | Rapid | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 27 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 26 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 23 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | FCSB | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 21 |
| 7 | Uta Arad | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 8 | Farul Constanta | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 17 |
| 9 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | FC Botosani | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 12 |
| 14 | Oţelul | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -16 | 8 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | -17 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Universitatea Cluj win, at 58.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.