Argentina · Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 1323:00

1 – 0

Saturday, 17 October 2026

Jose Amalfitani · Referee D. Herrera · Analysis updated 18:07 UTC

Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M. Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Velez Sarsfield and 0.75 for Gimnasia M., a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Velez Sarsfield the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Velez Sarsfield win

52.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 0.75

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Velez Sarsfield home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gimnasia M. away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Velez Sarsfield to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 28% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Velez Sarsfield and 0.75 for Gimnasia M., a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Velez Sarsfield win52%

Draw28%

Gimnasia M. win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

1–016.3%
1–112.2%
0–011.6%
2–011.4%
0–18.7%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.2%), compared with our model probability.

Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.75 (model 60.2% vs market 52.7%, edge +7.5 pts).

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Both teams to score	NoValue	1.75	52.7%	60.2%	1.66	+7.5
Double chance	Draw/Away	2.00	47.2%	47.6%	2.10	+0.4
Match result	Away	4.60	19.9%	20.1%	4.98	+0.2
Match result	Home	1.75	52.3%	52.4%	1.91	+0.1
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.18	80.1%	79.9%	1.25	-0.2
Double chance	Home/Away	1.30	72.7%	72.5%	1.38	-0.2
Match result	Draw	3.30	27.8%	27.5%	3.64	-0.3
Both teams to score	Yes	1.95	47.3%	39.8%	2.51	-7.5

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

Velez Sarsfield

2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia M. · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lanus · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-05T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Platense · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-21T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Tigre · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Newells Old Boys · 1-1 (D)

Gimnasia M.

2026-10-23T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Platense · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Velez Sarsfield · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-12T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Newells Old Boys · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes L.P. · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Riestra · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-04-03T18:00:00.000Z · Velez Sarsfield 2-3 Gimnasia M. (Liga Profesional Argentina)

Liga Profesional Argentina table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	0	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	4	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	-12	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	-7	11
1	Independ. Rivadavia	16	10	4	2	14	34
2	River Plate	16	9	2	5	10	29
3	Argentinos JRS	16	8	5	3	4	29
4	Rosario Central	16	8	4	4	4	28
5	Belgrano Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
6	Gimnasia L.P.	16	8	2	6	0	26
7	Huracan	16	5	7	4	4	22
8	Racing Club	16	5	6	5	2	21
9	Barracas Central	16	5	6	5	0	21
10	Tigre	16	4	8	4	3	20
11	Sarmiento Junin	16	6	1	9	-7	19
12	Banfield	16	5	3	8	-2	18
13	Atletico Tucuman	16	3	5	8	-5	14
14	Aldosivi	16	0	8	8	-13	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	16	1	2	13	-19	5
1	Instituto Cordoba	13	9	2	2	10	29
2	Defensa Y Justicia	14	8	3	3	7	27
3	Boca Juniors	13	6	6	1	7	24
4	Lanus	14	7	3	4	7	24
5	Velez Sarsfield	13	6	6	1	5	24
6	Newells Old Boys	14	5	6	3	3	21
7	Gimnasia M.	14	6	2	6	1	20
8	Independiente	13	5	4	4	-1	19
9	San Lorenzo	14	5	3	6	-5	18
10	Estudiantes L.P.	13	4	2	7	1	14
11	Union Santa Fe	13	4	2	7	-4	14
12	Platense	14	3	5	6	-6	14
13	Deportivo Riestra	13	2	6	5	-3	12
14	Central Cordoba de Santiago	13	2	4	7	-7	10
15	Talleres Cordoba	14	2	3	9	-9	9
1	Rosario Central	14	8	4	2	11	28
2	Argentinos JRS	13	7	4	2	6	25
3	Gimnasia L.P.	14	7	4	3	3	25
4	Belgrano Cordoba	13	6	4	3	4	22
5	Sarmiento Junin	14	6	3	5	1	21
6	River Plate	13	6	2	5	5	20
7	Barracas Central	13	5	4	4	1	19
8	Huracan	14	5	4	5	-2	19
9	Independ. Rivadavia	13	5	4	4	-4	19
10	Atletico Tucuman	14	4	5	5	0	17
11	Banfield	14	3	5	6	-5	14
12	Tigre	14	3	4	7	-3	13
13	Racing Club	13	3	3	7	-6	12
14	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	13	2	3	8	-9	9
15	Aldosivi	13	2	2	9	-8	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Velez Sarsfield win, at 52.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.