Stadio Pierluigi Penzo · Analysis updated 07:05 UTC
Venezia vs Napoli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Venezia and 1.56 for Napoli, a combined total of 3.79. That distribution gives Venezia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws roughly 47% of the time.
Model pick
Venezia to Win
52.8% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.8%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.5%
- 1–26.1%
Why the model likes this
Venezia home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Venezia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 20% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Venezia and 1.56 for Napoli, a combined 3.79 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 71%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Recent form
Venezia
- 2026-08-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Modena · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-08T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Stade Brestois 29 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint Etienne · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-07-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Galatasaray · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-23T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Vis Pesaro · 8-0 (W)
Napoli
- 2026-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris Thessalonikis · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Carrarese · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.