· Analysis updated 13:30 UTC
Wilhelmshaven vs Hemmingen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Wilhelmshaven and 0.78 for Hemmingen, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Wilhelmshaven the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Wilhelmshaven win
69.5% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wilhelmshaven home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hemmingen away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wilhelmshaven to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 19% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Wilhelmshaven and 0.78 for Hemmingen, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.4%
- 1–011.4%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–09.0%
- 1–18.8%
Recent form
Wilhelmshaven
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Drochtersen/Assel II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Verden 04 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vorsfelde · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nordhorn · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Spelle-Venhaus · 0-1 (L)
Hemmingen
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs BW Lohne · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bersenbrück · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Hildesheim · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Meppen II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Drochtersen/Assel II · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Niedersachsen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eintracht Braunschw. II | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | Heeslinger SC | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 3 | Wilhelmshaven | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 21 |
| 4 | Spelle-Venhaus | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 5 | Schwarz-Weiß Rehden | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 6 | Borussia Hildesheim | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 7 | BW Lohne | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 |
| 8 | Bersenbrück | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 9 | Meppen II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | Nordhorn | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 12 |
| 11 | Verden 04 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Germania Egestorf | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 9 |
| 13 | Hemmingen | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -19 | 7 |
| 14 | Lüneburger SK Hansa | 10 | 0 | 6 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Vorsfelde | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -19 | 5 |
| 16 | Drochtersen/Assel II | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wilhelmshaven win, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.