Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost · Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
Železničar Pančevo vs FK Partizan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Železničar Pančevo and 1.60 for FK Partizan, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Železničar Pančevo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Železničar Pančevo win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Železničar Pančevo home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FK Partizan away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 1–17.7%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–16.5%
- 1–26.1%
Recent form
Železničar Pančevo
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cukaricki · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Macva · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Novi Pazar · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Surdulica · 5-1 (W)
FK Partizan
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnik Surdulica · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs OFK Beograd · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-18T16:30:00.000Z · Železničar Pančevo 1-2 FK Partizan (Super Liga)
- 2025-11-22T17:30:00.000Z · Železničar Pančevo 3-1 FK Partizan (Super Liga)
- 2025-07-20T18:00:00.000Z · Železničar Pančevo 0-1 FK Partizan (Super Liga)
- 2024-12-08T18:00:00.000Z · Železničar Pančevo 0-1 FK Partizan (Super Liga)
- 2024-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · Železničar Pančevo 0-2 FK Partizan (Super Liga)
- 2024-03-02T17:30:00.000Z · Železničar Pančevo 1-3 FK Partizan (Super Liga)
- 2023-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · Železničar Pančevo 1-2 FK Partizan (Super Liga)
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 28 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Radnicki 1923 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Mladost Lucani | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | IMT Novi Beograd | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | Železničar Pančevo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Radnik Surdulica | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Novi Pazar | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Cukaricki | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | OFK Beograd | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 11 | FK Partizan | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Radnicki NIS | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Macva | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Zemun | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Železničar Pančevo win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.