Estac Troyes vs Marseille Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.07 for Marseille, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Estac Troyes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws roughly 43% of the time.

Model pick

Estac Troyes to Win

56.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.90 – 1.07

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Estac Troyes win57%

Draw22%

Marseille win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–110.4%
2–19.9%
1–09.8%
2–09.3%
3–16.3%

Why the model likes this

Estac Troyes home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estac Troyes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 22% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Estac Troyes and 1.07 for Marseille, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

Estac Troyes

2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Panetolikos · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-31T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Chasselay MDA · 5-2 (W)
2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grenoble · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs RED Star FC 93 · 1-0 (W)

Marseille

2026-08-14T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nimes · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Auxerre	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Angers	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Stade Brestois 29	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Lorient	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Le Havre	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Le Mans	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Lille	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Nice	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lyon	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Marseille	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Paris FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Paris Saint Germain	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Lens	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Rennes	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Strasbourg	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Toulouse	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Estac Troyes	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.