Estadio do Maritimo · Referee Sergio Guelho, Portugal · Analysis updated 22:58 UTC
Maritimo vs Casa Pia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Maritimo and 1.06 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Maritimo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.
Model pick
Maritimo or Draw
70.4% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–19.6%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.6%
Why the model likes this
Maritimo home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Casa Pia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maritimo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 27% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Maritimo and 1.06 for Casa Pia, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Odds comparison
Indicative prices for the main markets.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Home | 2.15 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | 3.30 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Away | 3.30 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 1.40 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | 2.90 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.20 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.65 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 4.20 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.22 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 1.07 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 0.5 | 8.00 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 8.50 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 4.5 | 1.06 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | Yes | 1.90 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | No | 1.80 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Draw | 1.33 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Away | 1.28 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Draw/Away | 1.62 | 10Bet |
Recent form
Maritimo
- 2026-08-08T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Casa Pia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Estrela Calheta · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Machico · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Camacha · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Leixoes · 1-5 (L)
Casa Pia
- 2026-08-08T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Maritimo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Leixoes · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-07-25T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Benfica B · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-28T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Academico Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.