Estadio do Maritimo · Referee Sergio Guelho, Portugal · Analysis updated 16:04 UTC
Maritimo vs Casa Pia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Maritimo and 1.06 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Maritimo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.4% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maritimo home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Casa Pia away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maritimo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 27% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Maritimo and 1.06 for Casa Pia, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–19.6%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Away | 3.30 | 28.3% | 29.6% | 3.38 | +1.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.33 | 69.9% | 70.4% | 1.42 | +0.5 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.22 | 77.5% | 77.9% | 1.28 | +0.4 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.80 | 51.4% | 51.8% | 1.93 | +0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.20 | 42.9% | 43.0% | 2.33 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.28 | 72.7% | 72.7% | 1.38 | 0.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.65 | 57.1% | 57.0% | 1.75 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.15 | 43.4% | 43.1% | 2.32 | -0.3 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 4.20 | 22.5% | 22.1% | 4.52 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.90 | 48.6% | 48.2% | 2.07 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.62 | 57.4% | 56.9% | 1.76 | -0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 28.3% | 27.3% | 3.66 | -1.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Maritimo
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Moreirense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Arouca · 1-2 (L)
Casa Pia
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Santa Clara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Estoril · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Moreirense · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T14:30:00.000Z · Maritimo 1-0 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-03-19T15:30:00.000Z · Maritimo 0-2 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-10-03T19:15:00.000Z · Maritimo 1-2 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-07-23T09:00:00.000Z · Maritimo 0-0 Casa Pia (Friendlies Clubs)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.