Maritimo vs FC Porto Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Maritimo and 1.18 for FC Porto, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Maritimo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Maritimo or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Maritimo win44%

Draw26%

FC Porto win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Maritimo home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Porto away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

Maritimo

2026-08-08T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Casa Pia · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Estrela Calheta · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Machico · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Camacha · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Leixoes · 1-5 (L)

FC Porto

2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Rio Ave · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Alverca · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-01T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2023-02-01T19:00:00.000Z · Maritimo 0-2 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
2022-08-06T19:30:00.000Z · Maritimo 1-5 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
2022-01-30T20:30:00.000Z · Maritimo 1-2 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
2021-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · Maritimo 1-1 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
2021-02-22T19:00:00.000Z · Maritimo 1-2 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
2020-10-03T17:30:00.000Z · Maritimo 3-2 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
2020-06-10T20:30:00.000Z · Maritimo 0-1 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
2019-10-30T18:45:00.000Z · Maritimo 1-1 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
2019-03-16T20:30:00.000Z · Maritimo 0-3 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
2018-11-03T18:00:00.000Z · Maritimo 0-2 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	34	28	4	2	48	88
2	Sporting CP	34	25	7	2	65	82
3	Benfica	34	23	11	0	49	80
4	SC Braga	34	16	11	7	28	59
5	Famalicao	34	15	11	8	13	56
6	GIL Vicente	34	13	11	10	9	50
7	Moreirense	34	12	7	15	-12	43
8	Arouca	34	12	6	16	-17	42
9	Vitória SC	34	12	6	16	-12	42
10	Estoril	34	10	9	15	-3	39
11	Alverca	34	10	9	15	-17	39
12	Rio Ave	34	8	12	14	-22	36
13	Santa Clara	34	9	9	16	-9	36
14	Nacional	34	9	7	18	-8	34
15	Estrela	34	6	12	16	-18	30
16	Casa Pia	34	6	12	16	-26	30
17	Tondela	34	6	10	18	-28	28
18	AVS	34	3	12	19	-40	21

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.