Stadio Diego Armando Maradona · Analysis updated 04:27 UTC
Napoli vs Torino Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.21 expected goals for Napoli and 0.86 for Torino, a combined total of 3.07. That distribution gives Napoli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws roughly 32% of the time.
Model pick
Napoli to Win
68.0% probability
Expected goals
2.21 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.3%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–18.8%
- 3–08.3%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Napoli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 19% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.21 goals for Napoli and 0.86 for Torino, a combined 3.07 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 52%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Model confidence
Napoli to Win is the headline pick at 68% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Napoli
Torino
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.