· Analysis updated 06:06 UTC
Rio Ave vs SC Braga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Rio Ave and 2.03 for SC Braga, a combined total of 3.01. That distribution gives SC Braga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws roughly 38% of the time.
Model pick
SC Braga to Win
61.7% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 2.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.2%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–210.0%
- 1–19.8%
- 0–36.9%
Why the model likes this
Rio Ave home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SC Braga away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SC Braga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 17% / 21% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Rio Ave and 2.03 for SC Braga, a combined 3.01 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Rio Ave
- 2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Tondela · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ahli Jeddah · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Portimonense · 3-0 (W)
SC Braga
- 2026-08-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Minsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Moreirense · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Minsk · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Železničar Pančevo · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-07-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Železničar Pančevo · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Academico Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.