Sao Paulo vs Santos Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 1.30 for Santos, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Sao Paulo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws roughly 53% of the time.

Model pick

Sao Paulo to Win

46.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.70 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Sao Paulo win47%

Draw24%

Santos win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.0%
2–19.4%
1–08.5%
2–07.2%
1–27.2%

Why the model likes this

Sao Paulo home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sao Paulo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 24% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.30 for Santos, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Sao Paulo

2026-08-16T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Coritiba · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-12T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-23T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Paranaense · 1-2 (L)

Santos

2026-08-13T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Macara · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-09T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Paranaense · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-05T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-29T00:30:00.000Z · H vs UCV · 4-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-02-04T23:00:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 1-1 Santos (Serie A)
2026-01-31T23:30:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 2-0 Santos (Paulista - A1)
2025-09-21T23:30:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 0-1 Santos (Serie A)
2025-04-20T19:00:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 2-1 Santos (Serie A)
2025-02-01T23:30:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 1-3 Santos (Paulista - A1)
2024-02-14T22:30:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 0-1 Santos (Paulista - A1)
2023-11-12T21:30:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 0-0 Santos (Serie A)
2023-07-16T19:00:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 4-1 Santos (Serie A)
2023-02-12T22:00:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 3-1 Santos (Paulista - A1)

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	11	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	RB Bragantino	22	9	5	8	4	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
9	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	-2	31
10	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	1	27
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.