Fußball Arena München · Referee S. Vinčić · Analysis updated 21:18 UTC
Spain vs France Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.09 expected goals for Spain and 0.54 for France, a combined total of 1.62. That distribution gives Spain the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.
Model pick
Spain to Win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.09 – 0.54
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–021.4%
- 0–019.7%
- 2–011.6%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–110.6%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spain to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 33% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.09 goals for Spain and 0.54 for France, a combined 1.62 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 22% and both teams to score at 28%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%.
Model confidence
Spain to Win is the headline pick at 49% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Spain
France
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Euro Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Switzerland | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 3 | Hungary | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Scotland | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 1 | Spain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Italy | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Croatia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 |
| 4 | Albania | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 1 | England | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | Denmark | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Slovenia | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Serbia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 1 | Austria | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | France | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Poland | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 1 | Romania | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Belgium | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Slovakia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Ukraine | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 1 | Portugal | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Türkiye | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Georgia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Czech Republic | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 1 | Netherlands | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 2 | Georgia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Slovakia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Slovenia | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Hungary | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 6 | Croatia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.