Turkey · Süper Lig · Regular Season - 3417:00

03

Sunday, 17 May 2026

Papara Park · Referee A. Karaoglan · Analysis updated 23:56 UTC

Trabzonspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.93 for Gençlerbirliği S.K., a combined total of 2.42. That distribution gives Trabzonspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws roughly 49% of the time.

Model pick

Trabzonspor to Win

50.6% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.50 – 0.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Trabzonspor win51%
Draw26%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Over 3.5 goals23%
Both teams to score47%

Correct score

  • 1–013.3%
  • 1–112.3%
  • 2–010.0%
  • 2–19.2%
  • 0–08.8%

Why the model likes this

  • Trabzonspor home form

    6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Trabzonspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 26% / 23% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.50 goals for Trabzonspor and 0.93 for Gençlerbirliği S.K., a combined 2.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

Trabzonspor

  • 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kasımpaşa · 1-1 (D)
  • 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Göztepe · 1-2 (L)
  • 2026-08-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Udinese · 1-0 (W)
  • 2026-07-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Sadd · 0-1 (L)
  • 2026-07-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 0-3 (L)

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Süper Lig table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Gençlerbirliği S.K.110013
    2Rizespor110013
    3Galatasaray101001
    4Çorum FK101001
    5Alanyaspor101001
    6Gaziantep FK101001
    7Kasımpaşa101001
    8Trabzonspor101001
    9Fenerbahçe1001-10
    10Konyaspor1001-10

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.