Canada · Northern Super League · Regular season02:00

34

Thursday, 30 July 2026

· Analysis updated 05:54 UTC

Vancouver Rise W vs Montreal Roses W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Vancouver Rise W and 2.26 for Montreal Roses W, a combined total of 3.64. That distribution gives Montreal Roses W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws roughly 43% of the time.

Model pick

Montreal Roses W to Win

57.2% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.38 – 2.26

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Vancouver Rise W win23%
Draw20%
Montreal Roses W win57%

Double chance 1X

43%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Over 3.5 goals49%
Both teams to score67%

Correct score

  • 1–29.2%
  • 1–18.2%
  • 1–37.0%
  • 0–26.7%
  • 2–26.4%

Why the model likes this

  • Vancouver Rise W home form

    0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Montreal Roses W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 23% / 20% / 57% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.38 goals for Vancouver Rise W and 2.26 for Montreal Roses W, a combined 3.64 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 67%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

Vancouver Rise W

  • 2026-08-08T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Calgary Wild W · 2-3 (L)
  • 2026-07-30T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Montreal Roses W · 3-4 (L)
  • 2026-07-25T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Halifax Tides W · 0-1 (L)
  • 2026-07-18T20:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Toronto W · 3-0 (W)
  • 2026-07-11T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Calgary Wild W · 4-2 (W)

Montreal Roses W

  • 2026-08-07T23:10:00.000Z · H vs Halifax Tides W · 0-1 (L)
  • 2026-07-30T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Vancouver Rise W · 4-3 (W)
  • 2026-07-23T23:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Toronto W · 0-2 (L)
  • 2026-07-12T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Halifax Tides W · 1-0 (W)
  • 2026-07-04T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Rise W · 5-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Northern Super League table

Full league page →
#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Montreal Roses W6411713
2Ottawa Rapid W6402712
3Vancouver Rise W6303-69
4AFC Toronto W521237
5Halifax Tides W621327
6Calgary Wild W5014-131

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.