Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.15 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Coritiba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws roughly 61% of the time.

Model pick

Coritiba or Draw

68.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Vasco DA Gama win32%

Draw29%

Coritiba win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

0–113.4%
1–113.4%
0–011.6%
1–011.6%
0–27.7%

Why the model likes this

Vasco DA Gama home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Coritiba away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Coritiba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 32% / 29% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.15 for Coritiba, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Recent form

Vasco DA Gama

2026-08-13T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bahia · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-06T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-01T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-29T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Medellin · 1-0 (W)

Coritiba

2026-08-16T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense-sc · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-31T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Cruzeiro · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-22T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	11	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	RB Bragantino	22	9	5	8	4	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
9	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	-2	31
10	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	1	27
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.