Brighton vs Crystal Palace Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Brighton and 1.22 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Brighton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws roughly 50% of the time.

Model pick

Brighton to Win

50.2% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.76 – 1.22

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Brighton win50%

Draw23%

Crystal Palace win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–110.9%
2–19.6%
1–08.9%
2–07.9%
1–26.6%

Why the model likes this

Brighton home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Crystal Palace away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

Brighton

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bologna · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-01T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 4-3 (W)
2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds · 0-1 (L)

Crystal Palace

2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Freiburg · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Fulham · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Ula · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-02-08T14:00:00.000Z · Brighton 0-1 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
2025-11-09T14:00:00.000Z · Brighton 0-0 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
2025-04-05T14:00:00.000Z · Brighton 1-2 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
2024-12-15T14:00:00.000Z · Brighton 1-3 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
2024-02-03T15:00:00.000Z · Brighton 4-1 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
2023-12-21T20:00:00.000Z · Brighton 1-1 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
2023-03-15T19:30:00.000Z · Brighton 1-0 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
2023-02-11T15:00:00.000Z · Brighton 1-1 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
2022-01-14T20:00:00.000Z · Brighton 1-1 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
2021-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · Brighton 1-1 Crystal Palace (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.