Chelsea vs Newcastle Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for Chelsea and 1.41 for Newcastle, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Chelsea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws roughly 48% of the time.

Model pick

Chelsea to Win

52.2% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

2.04 – 1.41

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Chelsea win52%

Draw21%

Newcastle win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

2–19.3%
1–19.1%
2–06.6%
2–26.6%
1–06.5%

Why the model likes this

Chelsea home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Newcastle away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

Chelsea

2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Johor Darul Takzim FC · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventus · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 1-2 (L)

Newcastle

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-12T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bristol City · 1-4 (L)
2026-07-25T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Gateshead · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-03-14T17:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 0-1 Newcastle (Premier League)
2025-12-20T12:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 2-2 Newcastle (Premier League)
2025-05-11T11:00:00.000Z · Chelsea 0-2 Newcastle (Premier League)
2024-10-30T19:45:00.000Z · Chelsea 0-2 Newcastle (League Cup)
2024-10-27T13:00:00.000Z · Chelsea 2-1 Newcastle (Premier League)
2024-03-11T20:00:00.000Z · Chelsea 3-2 Newcastle (Premier League)
2023-12-19T20:00:00.000Z · Chelsea 1-1 Newcastle (League Cup)
2023-11-25T15:00:00.000Z · Chelsea 1-4 Newcastle (Premier League)
2023-07-27T00:15:00.000Z · Chelsea 1-1 Newcastle (Premier League - Summer Series)
2023-05-28T15:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 1-1 Newcastle (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.