Everton vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Everton and 1.33 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Everton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.

Model pick

Everton to Win

45.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.67 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Everton win45%

Draw24%

Aston Villa win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.0%
2–19.2%
1–08.3%
1–27.4%
2–06.9%

Why the model likes this

Aston Villa away threat
Scored in 8 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Everton to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 24% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Everton and 1.33 for Aston Villa, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

Everton

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lille · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-12T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stoke City · 0-1 (L)

Aston Villa

2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern München · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs BG Pathum United · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad · 2-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.