· Analysis updated 15:35 UTC
1º de Agosto vs Green Mamba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for 1º de Agosto and 1.03 for Green Mamba, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives 1º de Agosto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
1º de Agosto win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
1º de Agosto home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Green Mamba away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 1º de Agosto to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 27% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for 1º de Agosto and 1.03 for Green Mamba, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–012.2%
- 2–19.0%
- 2–08.8%
- 0–18.7%
Recent form
1º de Agosto
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Virunga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Académica do Lobito · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Luanda · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Green Mamba · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting de Cabinda · 1-1 (D)
Green Mamba
- 2026-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tabankulu · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Manzini Wanderers · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-16T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Sisonkhe · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rangers FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Royal Leopards · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is 1º de Agosto win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.