Estádio 11 de Novembro · Analysis updated 17:35 UTC
1º de Agosto vs Kabuscorp Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for 1º de Agosto and 0.73 for Kabuscorp, a combined total of 1.92. That distribution gives 1º de Agosto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
1º de Agosto win
47.3% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
1º de Agosto home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kabuscorp away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.5%
- 0–014.6%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–110.6%
- 2–010.5%
Recent form
1º de Agosto
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Virunga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Académica do Lobito · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Luanda · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Green Mamba · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting de Cabinda · 1-1 (D)
Kabuscorp
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Wiliete · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Sagrada Esperança · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Interclube · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bravos do Maquis FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs UNAM · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T14:30:00.000Z · 1º de Agosto 0-1 Kabuscorp (Girabola)
- 2026-02-01T15:00:00.000Z · 1º de Agosto 1-1 Kabuscorp (Girabola)
- 2025-05-25T15:00:00.000Z · 1º de Agosto 0-0 Kabuscorp (Girabola)
- 2025-02-14T15:00:00.000Z · 1º de Agosto 2-2 Kabuscorp (Girabola)
- 2024-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · 1º de Agosto 2-2 Kabuscorp (Girabola)
- 2023-12-10T15:00:00.000Z · 1º de Agosto 0-1 Kabuscorp (Girabola)
- 2022-05-01T15:00:00.000Z · 1º de Agosto 2-1 Kabuscorp (Girabola)
- 2021-11-27T15:00:00.000Z · 1º de Agosto 2-2 Kabuscorp (Girabola)
- 2019-05-19T14:00:00.000Z · 1º de Agosto 1-0 Kabuscorp (Girabola)
- 2019-02-03T16:30:00.000Z · 1º de Agosto 2-0 Kabuscorp (Girabola)
Girabola table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wiliete | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Petro de Luanda | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Bravos do Maquis FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | 1º de Agosto | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | Interclube | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Desportivo Huíla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Sagrada Esperança | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Recreativo do Libolo | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 9 | São Salvador | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | 1º de Maio | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | CD Lunda-Sul | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Recreativo da Caála | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Kabuscorp | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | FC Luanda | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Sporting de Cabinda | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Académica do Lobito | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is 1º de Agosto win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.