· Analysis updated 17:57 UTC
1º de Maio U20 vs Atletico PE U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.49 expected goals for 1º de Maio U20 and 1.28 for Atletico PE U20, a combined total of 3.77. That distribution gives 1º de Maio U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
1º de Maio U20 win
63.8% probability
Expected goals
2.49 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
1º de Maio U20 home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico PE U20 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 1º de Maio U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 18% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.49 goals for 1º de Maio U20 and 1.28 for Atletico PE U20, a combined 3.77 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–17.3%
- 2–07.1%
- 3–05.9%
Recent form
1º de Maio U20
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs CA Porto U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ibis Sport Club U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Torres U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Central SC U20 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Retrô U20 · 0-4 (L)
Atletico PE U20
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs CA Porto U20 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ibis Sport Club U20 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Torres U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Central SC U20 · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Retrô U20 · 0-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pernambucano - U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santa Cruz U20 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 20 |
| 1 | Sport Recife U20 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 18 |
| 2 | Retrô U20 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 17 |
| 2 | Nautico U20 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | Ipojuca U20 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Academica Vitoria U20 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | CA Porto U20 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 14 |
| 4 | America PE U20 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 10 |
| 5 | Central SC U20 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Petrolina U20 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 6 | 1º de Maio U20 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 6 | Serrano PE U20 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 | Ibis Sport Club U20 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 7 |
| 7 | Jaguar U20 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 8 | Atletico PE U20 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -24 | 3 |
| 8 | Guarany U20 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -33 | 0 |
| 9 | Atletico Torres U20 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -22 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is 1º de Maio U20 win, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.