1º de Maio vs 1º de Agosto Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for 1º de Maio and 1.37 for 1º de Agosto, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives 1º de Agosto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.32 – 1.37

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

1º de Maio home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
1º de Agosto away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 1º de Agosto to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 36% / 26% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.32 goals for 1º de Maio and 1.37 for 1º de Agosto, a combined 2.69 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

1º de Maio win36%

Draw26%

1º de Agosto win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.3%
0–19.3%
1–09.0%
1–28.4%
2–18.1%

Recent form

1º de Maio

2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Bravos do Maquis FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-21T14:30:00.000Z · H vs CD Lunda-Sul · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo do Libolo · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Académica do Lobito · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs 1º de Agosto · 1-2 (L)

1º de Agosto

2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Virunga · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Académica do Lobito · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Luanda · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Green Mamba · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting de Cabinda · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Girabola table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Wiliete	6	5	1	0	11	16
2	Petro de Luanda	6	4	2	0	7	14
3	1º de Agosto	6	4	2	0	4	14
4	Bravos do Maquis FC	6	4	1	1	5	13
5	Interclube	6	3	1	2	2	10
6	Desportivo Huíla	6	3	1	2	1	10
7	Recreativo do Libolo	6	3	0	3	-4	9
8	1º de Maio	6	2	2	2	1	8
9	Sagrada Esperança	5	2	1	2	-1	7
10	CD Lunda-Sul	6	1	3	2	-1	6
11	Kabuscorp	7	1	3	3	-2	6
12	Recreativo da Caála	6	1	2	3	-2	5
13	São Salvador	6	1	2	3	-3	5
14	FC Luanda	6	1	1	4	-4	4
15	Sporting de Cabinda	6	0	3	3	-5	3
16	Académica do Lobito	6	0	1	5	-9	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.