· Analysis updated 09:16 UTC
1º de Maio vs FC Luanda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for 1º de Maio and 1.18 for FC Luanda, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives 1º de Maio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
1º de Maio win
50.8% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
1º de Maio home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Luanda away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 1º de Maio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 24% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for 1º de Maio and 1.18 for FC Luanda, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–08.2%
- 1–26.5%
Recent form
1º de Maio
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Bravos do Maquis FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-21T14:30:00.000Z · H vs CD Lunda-Sul · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo do Libolo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Académica do Lobito · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs 1º de Agosto · 1-2 (L)
FC Luanda
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Académica do Lobito · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Desportivo Huíla · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo do Libolo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs 1º de Agosto · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiliete · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Girabola table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wiliete | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Desportivo Huíla | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Petro de Luanda | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Bravos do Maquis FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | 1º de Agosto | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Interclube | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Sagrada Esperança | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | CD Lunda-Sul | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Recreativo do Libolo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 10 | São Salvador | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | 1º de Maio | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Recreativo da Caála | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Kabuscorp | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | FC Luanda | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Sporting de Cabinda | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Académica do Lobito | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is 1º de Maio win, at 50.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.