1º de Maio vs Kabuscorp Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for 1º de Maio and 0.90 for Kabuscorp, a combined total of 2.01. That distribution gives 1º de Maio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

70.6% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.11 – 0.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

1º de Maio home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kabuscorp away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 1º de Maio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 31% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for 1º de Maio and 0.90 for Kabuscorp, a combined 2.01 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

1º de Maio win40%

Draw31%

Kabuscorp win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals60%

Over 2.5 goals33%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

1–014.8%
1–113.4%
0–013.3%
0–112.1%
2–08.2%

Recent form

1º de Maio

2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Bravos do Maquis FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-21T14:30:00.000Z · H vs CD Lunda-Sul · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo do Libolo · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Académica do Lobito · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs 1º de Agosto · 1-2 (L)

Kabuscorp

2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Wiliete · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-07T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Sagrada Esperança · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Interclube · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bravos do Maquis FC · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs UNAM · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Girabola table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Wiliete	6	5	1	0	11	16
2	Petro de Luanda	6	4	2	0	7	14
3	Bravos do Maquis FC	7	4	2	1	5	14
4	1º de Agosto	6	4	2	0	4	14
5	Interclube	7	4	1	2	3	13
6	Desportivo Huíla	7	4	1	2	3	13
7	Sagrada Esperança	7	3	2	2	2	11
8	Recreativo do Libolo	7	3	0	4	-5	9
9	São Salvador	7	2	2	3	-2	8
10	1º de Maio	8	2	2	4	-3	8
11	CD Lunda-Sul	7	1	4	2	-1	7
12	Recreativo da Caála	7	1	3	3	-2	6
13	Kabuscorp	7	1	3	3	-2	6
14	FC Luanda	8	1	2	5	-6	5
15	Sporting de Cabinda	7	0	4	3	-5	4
16	Académica do Lobito	8	0	3	5	-9	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.