1º Dezembro vs Caldas Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for 1º Dezembro and 1.14 for Caldas, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives 1º Dezembro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.34 – 1.14

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

1º Dezembro home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Caldas away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 1º Dezembro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 27% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for 1º Dezembro and 1.14 for Caldas, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

1º Dezembro win41%

Draw27%

Caldas win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.8%
1–011.2%
0–19.5%
2–18.6%
0–08.3%

Recent form

1º Dezembro

2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lajense · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Amora · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Serpa · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Real · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Imortal Albufeira · 0-5 (L)

Caldas

2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória de Sernache · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs União Santarém · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sintrense · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Louletano · 2-4 (L)
2026-08-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Lusitano Évora 1911 · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paredes	6	4	1	1	4	13
1	CF Os Belenenses	6	5	1	0	11	16
2	Leça	6	3	1	2	1	10
2	Atlético CP	6	4	1	1	8	13
3	AD Marco 09	6	3	1	2	1	10
3	Oliveirense	6	2	3	1	0	9
4	Vianense	6	2	3	1	1	9
4	Mafra	6	2	2	2	4	8
5	Fafe	6	2	3	1	4	9
5	Louletano	6	2	1	3	-1	7
6	Varzim	6	3	0	3	2	9
6	União Santarém	6	2	1	3	-4	7
7	São João Ver	6	1	3	2	-2	6
7	Caldas	6	2	1	3	-3	7
8	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	2	3	-4	5
8	SC Covilha	6	1	3	2	-2	6
9	Trofense	6	1	2	3	-5	5
9	Lusitano Évora 1911	6	1	2	3	-4	5
10	Guimaraes B	6	1	2	3	-2	5
10	Vitória de Sernache	6	1	1	4	-9	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.