Voith-Arena · Analysis updated 01:48 UTC
1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayern München Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 2.05 for Bayern München, a combined total of 3.73. That distribution gives Bayern München the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bayern München win
46.8% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 2.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
1. FC Heidenheim home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bayern München away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bayern München to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 32% / 21% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 2.05 for Bayern München, a combined 3.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.5%
- 1–18.3%
- 2–27.1%
- 2–16.9%
- 1–35.8%
Recent form
1. FC Heidenheim
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Wolfsburg · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Würzburger Kickers · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 0-3 (L)
Bayern München
- 2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Viking · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Augsburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin · 7-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bayern München win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.