· Analysis updated 02:37 UTC
1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.53 for FC Ingolstadt 04, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives FC Ingolstadt 04 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Ingolstadt 04 win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
1. FC Heidenheim home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Ingolstadt 04 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–07.9%
- 0–27.8%
Recent form
1. FC Heidenheim
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Wolfsburg · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Würzburger Kickers · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 0-3 (L)
FC Ingolstadt 04
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs MSV Duisburg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Waldhof Mannheim · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Wehen · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Nürnberg · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T13:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 4-1 FC Ingolstadt 04 (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-07-26T12:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 3-2 FC Ingolstadt 04 (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-07-22T13:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 1-1 FC Ingolstadt 04 (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-12-21T12:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0 FC Ingolstadt 04 (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-01-16T12:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 2-1 FC Ingolstadt 04 (2. Bundesliga)
- 2021-07-31T11:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 2-1 FC Ingolstadt 04 (2. Bundesliga)
- 2019-05-19T13:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 4-2 FC Ingolstadt 04 (2. Bundesliga)
- 2018-12-16T12:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 1-1 FC Ingolstadt 04 (2. Bundesliga)
- 2018-03-31T11:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 1-2 FC Ingolstadt 04 (2. Bundesliga)
- 2017-10-20T16:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 0-3 FC Ingolstadt 04 (2. Bundesliga)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Ingolstadt 04 win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.