1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.83 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 2.00 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 4.83. That distribution gives 1. FC Heidenheim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

1. FC Heidenheim win

55.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.83 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

1. FC Heidenheim home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Holstein Kiel away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

1. FC Heidenheim win55%

Draw18%

Holstein Kiel win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals95%

Over 2.5 goals86%

Over 3.5 goals71%

Both teams to score81%

Correct score

2–16.4%
2–26.4%
3–16.0%
3–26.0%
1–14.5%

Recent form

1. FC Heidenheim

2026-09-25T14:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Arminia Bielefeld · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Holstein Kiel · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · A vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Dresden · 5-3 (W)

Holstein Kiel

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Viborg · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs VfL Osnabrück · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Nürnberg · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-30T11:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Magdeburg · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0 Holstein Kiel (2. Bundesliga)
2025-03-16T16:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 3-1 Holstein Kiel (Bundesliga)
2024-11-02T14:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 0-1 Holstein Kiel (Bundesliga)
2023-04-23T11:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 3-0 Holstein Kiel (2. Bundesliga)
2022-10-16T11:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 1-3 Holstein Kiel (2. Bundesliga)
2022-04-23T11:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 1-1 Holstein Kiel (2. Bundesliga)
2021-11-21T12:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 2-1 Holstein Kiel (2. Bundesliga)
2021-04-06T16:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0 Holstein Kiel (2. Bundesliga)
2020-11-21T12:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 2-2 Holstein Kiel (2. Bundesliga)
2020-02-22T12:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0 Holstein Kiel (2. Bundesliga)

2. Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hertha BSC	6	6	0	0	10	18
2	1. FC Nürnberg	6	5	1	0	10	16
3	1. FC Heidenheim	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	VfL Wolfsburg	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	1. FC Kaiserslautern	6	3	2	1	2	11
6	1. FC Magdeburg	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Energie Cottbus	6	2	2	2	1	8
8	FC St. Pauli	6	1	4	1	0	7
9	VfL Bochum	6	2	1	3	-1	7
10	Hannover 96	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	VfL Osnabrück	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Arminia Bielefeld	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Karlsruher SC	6	1	2	3	-6	5
15	Eintracht Braunschweig	6	1	1	4	-1	4
16	Holstein Kiel	6	0	4	2	-3	4
17	Dynamo Dresden	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	SV Darmstadt 98	6	1	1	4	-8	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is 1. FC Heidenheim win, at 55.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.