Voith-Arena · Referee Eric-Dominic Weisbach, Germany · Analysis updated 20:57 UTC
1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Osnabrück Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.01 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.58 for VfL Osnabrück, a combined total of 3.59. That distribution gives 1. FC Heidenheim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
1. FC Heidenheim win
47.9% probability
Expected goals
2.01 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
1. FC Heidenheim home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
VfL Osnabrück away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.8%
- 1–18.8%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–26.9%
- 3–15.9%
Recent form
1. FC Heidenheim
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Wolfsburg · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Würzburger Kickers · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 0-3 (L)
VfL Osnabrück
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Arminia Bielefeld · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Dresden · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Djurgardens IF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Bochum · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiedenbrück · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 4-3 VfL Osnabrück (2. Bundesliga)
- 2021-02-20T12:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 2-1 VfL Osnabruck (2. Bundesliga)
- 2020-10-25T12:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 1-1 VfL Osnabruck (2. Bundesliga)
- 2019-12-22T12:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 3-1 VfL Osnabruck (2. Bundesliga)
- 2019-07-27T13:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 3-1 VfL Osnabruck (2. Bundesliga)
- 2014-05-03T11:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 0-1 VfL Osnabruck (3. Liga)
- 2013-11-30T13:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 2-0 VfL Osnabruck (3. Liga)
- 2013-04-13T12:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 2-2 VfL Osnabruck (3. Liga)
- 2012-10-20T12:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 1-3 VfL Osnabruck (3. Liga)
- 2012-03-03T13:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Heidenheim 0-0 VfL Osnabruck (3. Liga)
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 25 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | VfL Osnabrück | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Energie Cottbus | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | Holstein Kiel | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | VfL Bochum | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Dynamo Dresden | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 | Hannover 96 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Karlsruher SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is 1. FC Heidenheim win, at 47.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.