Voith-Arena · Analysis updated 20:05 UTC
1. FC Heidenheim vs Würzburger Kickers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 2.47 for Würzburger Kickers, a combined total of 4.43. That distribution gives Würzburger Kickers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Würzburger Kickers win
50.0% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 2.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
1. FC Heidenheim home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Würzburger Kickers away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Würzburger Kickers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 31% / 19% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 2.47 for Würzburger Kickers, a combined 4.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.2%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–35.9%
- 1–15.8%
- 2–35.8%
Recent form
1. FC Heidenheim
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Wolfsburg · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Würzburger Kickers · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 0-3 (L)
Würzburger Kickers
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-01T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Stuttgart II · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Verl · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Alemannia Aachen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 2-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Würzburger Kickers win, at 50.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.