Fritz Walter Stadion · Analysis updated 18:50 UTC
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hertha BSC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 1.88 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Hertha BSC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Hertha BSC win
50.9% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
1. FC Kaiserslautern home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hertha BSC away threat
Scored in 8 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–17.8%
- 0–27.3%
- 2–16.6%
Recent form
1. FC Kaiserslautern
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs VfL Bochum · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Magdeburg · 0-3 (L)
Hertha BSC
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Augsburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hertha Zehlendorf · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo Dresden · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs VfL Osnabrück · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Magdeburg · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-11T11:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-0 Hertha BSC (2. Bundesliga)
- 2025-12-02T17:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-6 Hertha BSC (DFB Pokal)
- 2025-11-08T19:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0-1 Hertha BSC (2. Bundesliga)
- 2025-02-08T19:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-0 Hertha BSC (2. Bundesliga)
- 2024-08-31T18:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3-4 Hertha BSC (2. Bundesliga)
- 2024-05-11T11:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-3 Hertha Berlin (2. Bundesliga)
- 2024-01-31T19:45:00.000Z · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3-1 Hertha Berlin (DFB Pokal)
- 2023-12-09T12:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-2 Hertha Berlin (2. Bundesliga)
- 2013-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3-1 Hertha Berlin (DFB Pokal)
- 2013-02-25T19:15:00.000Z · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0-1 Hertha Berlin (2. Bundesliga)
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 25 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | VfL Osnabrück | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Energie Cottbus | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | Holstein Kiel | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | VfL Bochum | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Dynamo Dresden | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 | Hannover 96 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Karlsruher SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hertha BSC win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.