Fritz-Walter-Stadion · Referee Wolfgang Haslberger · Analysis updated 14:27 UTC
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Bochum Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 0.95 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives 1. FC Kaiserslautern the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.5% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
1. FC Kaiserslautern home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
VfL Bochum away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.1%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.6%
- 0–111.9%
- 2–07.9%
Recent form
1. FC Kaiserslautern
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs VfL Bochum · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Magdeburg · 0-3 (L)
VfL Bochum
- 2026-10-23T16:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Wolfsburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Arminia Bielefeld · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs VfL Osnabrück · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-07T19:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2-3 VfL Bochum (2. Bundesliga)
- 2025-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3-2 VfL Bochum (2. Bundesliga)
- 2018-04-13T16:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2-3 Vfl Bochum (2. Bundesliga)
- 2017-11-03T17:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0-0 Vfl Bochum (2. Bundesliga)
- 2017-04-05T15:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0-0 Vfl Bochum (2. Bundesliga)
- 2016-10-24T18:15:00.000Z · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3-0 Vfl Bochum (2. Bundesliga)
- 2016-03-14T19:15:00.000Z · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0-2 Vfl Bochum (2. Bundesliga)
- 2015-10-27T19:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0-1 Vfl Bochum (DFB Pokal)
- 2015-09-25T16:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2-1 Vfl Bochum (2. Bundesliga)
- 2015-04-24T16:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2-0 Vfl Bochum (2. Bundesliga)
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 25 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Arminia Bielefeld | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Energie Cottbus | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Dynamo Dresden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | VfL Osnabrück | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | VfL Bochum | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Hannover 96 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Karlsruher SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.