RheinEnergieStadion · Referee Florian Badstubner, Germany · Analysis updated 06:07 UTC
1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.84 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.55 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives 1. FC Köln the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
1. FC Köln home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
1899 Hoffenheim away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.2%
Recent form
1. FC Köln
- 2026-10-16T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Viktoria Köln · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen · 1-1 (D)
1899 Hoffenheim
- 2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Beşiktaş · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Paderborn 07 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:45:00.000Z · A vs OFI · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T13:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 3-2 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
- 2026-02-21T14:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 2-2 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
- 2025-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 1-0 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
- 2024-02-11T16:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 1-1 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
- 2023-09-16T13:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 1-3 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
- 2023-04-22T13:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 3-1 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
- 2022-10-30T18:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 1-1 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
- 2022-03-06T16:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 0-1 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
- 2021-10-15T18:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 0-5 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
- 2021-01-24T17:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 0-3 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 14 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | SV Elversberg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Hamburger SV | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 9 |
| 11 | 1. FC Köln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | FC Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -12 | 6 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.