RheinEnergieStadion · Analysis updated 21:08 UTC
1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.88 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Bayer Leverkusen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Bayer Leverkusen win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
1. FC Köln home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bayer Leverkusen away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 32% / 22% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.88 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 1–28.9%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–16.1%
Recent form
1. FC Köln
- 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Schalke 04 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-16T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Viktoria Köln · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 1-2 (L)
Bayer Leverkusen
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs OFI · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Freiburg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Lech Poznan · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FSV Mainz 05 · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 17 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | SV Elversberg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 9 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | FC Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -12 | 6 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bayer Leverkusen win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.