1. FC Köln vs FC Schalke 04 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.35 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives 1. FC Köln the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

1. FC Köln win

45.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.70 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

1. FC Köln home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Schalke 04 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

1. FC Köln win46%

Draw24%

FC Schalke 04 win31%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–110.9%
2–19.2%
1–08.1%
1–27.3%
2–06.8%

Recent form

1. FC Köln

2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Viktoria Köln · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 1-4 (L)

FC Schalke 04

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Austria Lustenau · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-weiss Oberhausen · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Elversberg · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Berlin · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2025-02-09T12:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 1-0 FC Schalke 04 (2. Bundesliga)
2024-09-01T11:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 3-1 FC Schalke 04 (2. Bundesliga)
2023-01-29T14:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 0-0 FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga)
2022-08-07T15:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 3-1 FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga)
2022-01-27T12:00:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 2-2 FC Schalke 04 (Friendlies Clubs)
2021-05-22T13:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 1-0 FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga)
2021-01-20T17:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 2-1 FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga)
2020-02-29T17:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 3-0 FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga)
2019-10-05T16:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 1-1 FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga)
2018-10-31T17:30:00.000Z · 1. FC Köln 2-2 FC Schalke 04 (DFB Pokal)

Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SC Freiburg	5	4	1	0	10	13
2	Borussia Dortmund	5	4	1	0	7	13
3	Bayern München	5	3	2	0	12	11
4	Bayer Leverkusen	5	3	1	1	6	10
5	RB Leipzig	5	3	0	2	10	9
6	FC Augsburg	5	2	2	1	5	8
7	Werder Bremen	5	2	2	1	0	8
8	FSV Mainz 05	5	2	1	2	3	7
9	SV Elversberg	5	2	1	2	0	7
10	1. FC Köln	5	2	1	2	-2	7
11	VfB Stuttgart	5	2	0	3	-1	6
12	Hamburger SV	5	2	0	3	-10	6
13	FC Schalke 04	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Eintracht Frankfurt	5	1	2	2	-7	5
15	SC Paderborn 07	5	1	1	3	-4	4
16	Union Berlin	5	1	1	3	-12	4
17	1899 Hoffenheim	5	1	0	4	-4	3
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	5	0	0	5	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is 1. FC Köln win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.